Interested in recipes, nutrition, or research?
Visit eatpecans.com
Understanding the dynamics of pecan production across the United States is essential for every stakeholder of the industry, including growers, shellers, accumulators and commercial customers. This new annual evaluation of the pecan crop in major U.S. growing regions, written by pecan extension specialists at research universities, offers critical, on-the-ground insights into the complex variables influencing pecan production nationwide.
The American Pecan Council’s goal in publishing this crop evaluation is to provide a trusted, educational resource that enhances transparency and shared understanding, helping to further unify and strengthen our industry. The extension specialists contributing to this evaluation are trusted experts who work closely with growers and observe conditions firsthand, making this report a uniquely valuable resource for strategic decision-making across the supply chain.
This report also serves as an important companion to the upcoming crop prediction model currently in development by New Mexico State University. While this new crop prediction model will not be ready to share until Spring 2026, APC asked the extension specialists to prepare a report as we go into the harvest season. In future years, the statistical model’s crop prediction will paired with the qualitative analysis by extension specialists. By combining expert field observations with advanced statistical forecasting, the industry will be better equipped to anticipate changes, align resources, and strengthen the resilience and sustainability of the American pecan industry.
Until then, the staff at APC hope this preliminary evaluation report is valuable, and we welcome your feedback.
The statistical model described above (developed by New Mexico State University on behalf of APC) aims to forecast pecan production up to a year or more in advance by analyzing region-specific variables such as climate data, pest and disease pressure, irrigation availability, and management practices. Given the more consistent production patterns in the western U.S., a region-specific model will be released first, with broader national projections to follow. Key publication milestones include:
Future model iterations will include enhanced predictions for eastern growing regions, where production is more variable and influenced by a wider range of environmental conditions.
The 2025 pecan growing season across the United States has been marked by highly variable weather patterns and persistent production challenges. Spring began with generally favorable flowering conditions in many regions, but early-season rainfall, wind events, and isolated freezes disrupted pollination and orchard access in some areas. The summer season brought a mix of intense heat in western growing regions and prolonged wet, humid conditions in the southeast, contributing to both drought stress and disease pressure depending on location. The regional evaluations offer valuable insights into the key factors that have influenced this year’s production, helping the industry gain a clearer understanding of overall crop performance.
El Paso County, Texas, is anticipating an overall 2025 pecan harvest comparable to last year’s production, amidst ongoing drought conditions and water scarcity that increasingly challenge the region’s pecan industry. While the U.S. Department of Agriculture does not release production data for individual operations in El Paso County to protect their privacy, El Paso County is one of Texas’s top pecan-producing areas with more than 17,000 acres of high-quality nuts. The overall Texas state production in 2024 was estimated to be around 28 to 32 million pounds with El Paso being the major producing region.
With the low Rio Grande water supply, growers are depending more heavily on saline groundwater for irrigation. Therefore, farmers must carefully monitor their orchard floor to control soil salinity and make the most of limited water resources to achieve the best yields possible. Even though this summer’s heat wasn’t as high as previous years, the prolonged heatwaves and extremely low rainfall (only 0.07 inches during two critical early-summer months) have further depleted soil and air moisture, heightening the reliance on ground water irrigation. As a counter measure, producers are considering alternative management practices to lower orchard temperatures, conserve soil moisture, and reduce evaporation caused by intense heat. Research efforts continue to focus on refining irrigation practices and mitigating the negative impacts of brackish water through soil treatment options.
Meanwhile, as the pecan market price has dropped to an average $1.77 per pound, growers have turned to storing their crops and working towards cost-saving strategies to counter rising labor, fuel, and equipment expenses. Despite these challenges, farmers remain committed and hopeful that they will still produce reasonable crop loads this 2025. The long-term prospects for El Paso’s pecan industry rely on sustainable water management, improved agricultural practices, and resilience in market conditions. Although some late-season rain occurred, with year-to-date rainfall varying from 4.32-8.22 inches depending on ZIP code, the 2025 crop outlook among growers varies from “pretty good” to “same as last year”.
Spring began with an abundance of pecan flowers, suggesting the potential for a larger-than-average crop across Oklahoma. Rainfall was above normal in April and May, which may have negatively affected pollination.
June continued to bring wet, humid, and cloudy days. Many growers were unable to enter their orchards or groves to apply timely fungicide applications. In some areas along creeks and rivers, lake backwaters impeded access for nearly two months. As a result, pecan scab and other minor diseases began to appear across the state. Orchards that were able to maintain a fungicide program are mostly clean of disease. Fortunately, cooler-than-normal temperatures during the wet spring may have helped limit early scab pressure, and very little leaf scab has been observed.
By July, temperatures had warmed somewhat—still below average—but scab pressure increased. The Cimarron Valley Research Station (CVRS) orchard, located on upland ground with good airflow, demonstrated the value of fungicide applications. Scab-susceptible cultivars there received six applications and the ‘Pawnee’ trees remain clean. The ‘Kanza’ received only two applications and are showing minor disease pressure.
At CVRS in central Oklahoma, 300 scab hours were recorded, compared to up to 600 hours in southeastern Oklahoma. Frequent rains and limited orchard access made fungicide timing difficult, and scab is expected in many areas.
In late July, many improved orchards were crop-thinned. The crop was slightly early but generally large across the state. Around that same time, widespread nut drop occurred. Contributing factors may have included poor pollination, heavy crop loads, tree stress, cloudy skies, or insect feeding during the water stage.
Growers still anticipate a large crop, though many report scab pressure. Nut size and quality may be reduced in affected orchards. The native crop also appears large, though disease is present. Harvest will depend largely on shuck split and native pecan prices. Without an improvement in prices compared to last season, many growers may leave the native crop unharvested.
At the Tri-State Pecan Conference, Oklahoma’s crop was estimated at 18 million pounds. However, during the Texas Pecan Growers Conference, that estimate was revised downward due to poor native pecan prices. While the crop potential may be 18–20 million pounds, the actual harvested volume will likely be much smaller.
The Georgia pecan crop looks about average this season. It is highly variable with Eastern GA being somewhat lighter than Western Georgia. Most old trees, particularly Stuart are off in much of the state. However, we have a rising acreage of young trees growing in production each year, which I believe offsets many of the more cyclical old trees. Many of these new plantings are varieties that should be of better quality than many old varieties. I feel that our exact producing acreage is difficult to determine based on the tree loss to recent storms and the new acreage coming into production. The following is from an article I recently wrote for The Pecan Grower magazine which describes our producing acreage situation in more detail:
"Our acreage in Georgia is in a bit more of a state of flux than that in the rest of the country. For decades we hovered at around 140,000 acres of pecans in Georgia. Over the years, there was an established pattern of what our very off and very on crops looked like. In the worst off year, we would be around 40 million lbs. In the best on year, we were around 150 million lbs. Most years, we hovered somewhere in between 60 million to 120 million. It was relatively easy to gauge based on historical memory and an educated, but still subjective guess.”
This all changed with the acreage expansion that began around 2009-2010. Thanks to improved prices from the export market to China, growers went from planting less than 2000 new acres per year to planting around 10,000 new acres annually. This persisted for about 8 years, adding considerable acreage to Georgia’s pecan orchards. In addition to acreage expansion, tree density in the orchard increased. We went from planting 24 trees per acre on average to 35 trees per acre. As a result, acreage boomed between 2010-2018, and has only recently slowed down a little with lower prices. The youngest of these trees from the 8-year planting boom are now about 7 years old and beginning to contribute considerably to the crop. The oldest are 15 years old and in the peak of production. Many of these acres consist of more productive cultivars and produce more consistent yields with better quality.
Coupled with the gains in acreage from planting, we have also had losses. These have come primarily through hurricanes and tropical storms, most notably Michael and Helene. These two storms together are estimated to have led to the loss of 1,100,000 pecan trees in the state. The majority of these trees were already in production and their loss drastically reduced Georgia’s bearing acreage. Prior to Hurricane Michael in 2018, 80% of Georgia’s pecan acreage was bearing pecans. Many of the trees lost to Michael were replanted. Prior to Helene in 2024, it is estimated that Georgia had over 216,000 acres of pecans. I anticipate that it is now down to around 180,000-190,000 acres, with only about 70-75% of that in production."
Scab has been the biggest issue we have faced this year. Frequent rains made it difficult for growers to keep up with spray schedules as needed. Thus, scab is present in many orchards, primarily on Pawnee. It is difficult to say how much loss this will bring in yield or quality because neither the scab pressure, nor the extent of damage is consistent from one orchard to the next and Pawnee has historically been able to take a significant amount of scab without causing extensive loss.
Black aphid pressure has been intense over the last couple weeks and growers have been spraying for these pests.
Our weather conditions for kernel filling were good. We had some timely rains early in the kernel filling stage that helped to enhance soil moisture. We have been sunny and dry for a couple of weeks now, which also help. Most of our commercial orchards have ample irrigation to fill the rest of the needs for kernel filling which is now at an end. If growers will continue to water enough to facilitate shuck split or we get another decent rain between now and the end of October, our quality should be good aside from those affected by scab.
Pawnee harvest should begin within the next week to 10 days.
As I’ve spoken with growers and consultants (and also based on my own observations), I’ve heard a consistent report across New Mexico and Arizona: the pecan crop looks “pretty decent overall”. In the Mesilla Valley (where ~70% of NM’s pecans are grown), the springtime weather was a significant challenge. Springtime windstorms are a common occurrence in southern NM, but they were especially fierce in spring 2025 (as attendees at the WPGA conference experienced). If there were any negative impacts of these winds on pollination, fruit set, or shoot growth, they seem to have been minimal. Freezing temperatures struck some areas the morning of April 6th causing spotty, isolated damage to catkins and fresh young shoot growth, especially in orchards north of Las Cruces. Even those orchards where there was significant damage, some growers are now reporting that they are pleasantly surprised at how many nuts there are on the effected trees (possibly due to regrowth of shoots and flowers from secondary buds). Pecos Basin producers were concerned in April that they too might see freezing temperatures, but thankfully temperatures were a little warmer than expected during the cold front.
Early season insect pest pressure was lower in NM and AZ than is usually the case. Pecan Nut Casebearer (PNC) was almost completely absent from most Mesilla Valley orchards this spring, perhaps a positive side-effect of the cold weather in April. In AZ, PNC pressure seemed to be lower than last year, especially as the industry has adopted effective integrated pest management plans. Significant June and August nut drop was evident in some mature orchards in NM, probably as part of the tree’s physiological mechanism to adjust crop load. In AZ, some younger orchards have exhibited the beginnings of alternate bearing and seem to be in an ‘Off’ year in 2025. Producers there will begin to manage this alternate bearing through initiating a mechanical hedging and topping program this coming dormant season with the hopes of more consistent cropping in those orchards in the future. The weather in NM over the summer was significantly cooler than the previous two summers—and the summer monsoons came with more regularity as well, especially in July and September. This is encouraging for pecan producers as the summertime rains help to reduce tree water stress and wash the honeydew and dust off of the leaves—it should be helpful for good nut sizing and kernel fill.