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Monthly US Pecan Market Analysis

Monthly U.S. pecan market analysis

Each month, the American Pecan Council shares the U.S. Pecan Market Analysis, an independent report prepared by an outside agricultural economist. The analysis combines APC handler data, USDA statistics, and international trade information to provide a holistic picture of current pecan market conditions.

Analysys Report

Fresh updates, every month

Below reflects the most recent U.S. Pecan Market Analysis findings and is updated with every new release. The findings below are summarized from the executive summary within the analysis, also found in our ongoing video overview series. Download the analysis, watch the video, and visit this page monthly to stay up-to-date on the latest market trends.

U.S. pecan market analysis: data through July

Brief analysis overview

While revisions may adjust the August numbers slightly, the books are now closed on the 2025/26 marketing year. Handler receipts show 2025/26 to have been an exceptionally normal harvest, with total receipts finishing just 1.1% over the five-year average. Despite the average production, supply was limited throughout the year, with U.S. imports at their lowest since 2008/09 (140 million lbs. on an in-shell basis, down 23%) and total new supply, as measured by combined receipts and U.S. Census reported imports, the lowest since the formation of the marketing board. Even with the lack of supply, the market remained relatively in balance throughout the year, with handler-reported inventories staying heavier than either of the prior two years for most of the marketing year. Domestic sales finished down 10.7% and export shipments down 7.5%, and inventories closed the 2025/26 season higher than they were coming into it, up 7% according to USDA Cold Storage and 6% according to APC's Handler Survey.

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August Pecan Total Receipts Graph

Receipts finish 1.1% above the five-year average

Total handler receipts for the 2025/26 marketing year finished just 1.1% over the five-year average (+3.7 million lbs. on an in-shell basis). In contrast to May, June and July, August receipts tend to jump seasonally, reflecting either the very first of the new crop entering the market or growers selling the last of their old crop before the new season. Unusually, handler receipts in August did not experience such a jump and were significantly lower than prior year (down 61%, or 14.4 million lbs.), potentially due to there being very little old crop that hasn't already entered the market.


Shelled inventories revised 15% higher for June and July

Perhaps the most important datapoint from the position report was the revision of handler-reported shelled inventories for June and July. Shelled inventories for both months were revised higher by 15% (an additional 6.8 million lbs. in both months). Those revisions change the interpretation of the data rather dramatically: where previously it appeared market fundamentals were tightening, the latest data shows a more balanced market.

August Pecan Handler Reported Inventories
August Pecan Market Analysis Domestic Utilization

Domestic sales finish the season down 10.7%

Domestic sales for 2025/26 finished down 10.7% (-41.3 million lbs. on an in-shell basis). Both the APC handler report and Circana retail sales suggest demand has been sluggish in 2026. Retail sales of pecans, including mixed nuts with pecans, are trailing prior year levels by 8% heading into the critical fourth quarter. Yet pecans are by no means alone: total nut sales are down 2%, with sales of almonds, cashews and pistachios all down double digits.

Exports down 7.5%, with Israel and South Korea as bright spots

Even as U.S. pecan exports declined overall in 2025/26 (down 7.5%, or 8.8 million lbs. on an in-shell basis), there were several notable bright spots, particularly for halves and pieces. U.S. shelled exports to Israel grew more than any other market, increasing by 16% (+747,641 lbs.), with South Korea close behind (+12%, +396,230 lbs.).


See our Graph of the Month page for more insights.

US Pecans Census Reported Exports August

Get the full picture

This overview highlights the month's key findings. Download the complete U.S. Pecan Market Analysis for the full data breakdown, graph by graph, section by section.

Download the full analysis