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Monthly US Pecan Market Analysis

Monthly U.S. pecan market analysis

Each month, the American Pecan Council shares the U.S. Pecan Market Analysis, an independent report prepared by an outside agricultural economist. The analysis combines APC handler data, USDA statistics, and international trade information to provide a holistic picture of current pecan market conditions.

Analysys Report

Fresh updates, every month

Below reflects the most recent U.S. Pecan Market Analysis findings and is updated with every new release. The findings below are summarized from the executive summary within the analysis, also found in our ongoing video overview series. Download the analysis, watch the video, and visit this page monthly to stay up-to-date on the latest market trends.

U.S. pecan market analysis: data through June

Brief analysis overview

Even as there was little new supply entering the market, June's data was far from mundane. Handler reported inventories declined by 37 million lbs. on an in-shell basis compared to May, with the drawdown concentrated in shelled pecans, which moved from 15% above 2025 levels in May to 10.5% below prior year in June. Such a significant drawdown, occurring when receipts, imports and exports were all largely flat, implies a jump in domestic utilization of pecans. Other data in the position report does appear to support a finding that inventories were drawn down and domestic demand improved, though the scale of the jump may not be at the level implied by the inventory figure. Taking a step back, June's data suggests domestic demand is improving and inventories were likely drawn down to fulfill customer orders, though we should be cautious about the scale of the apparent demand surge until further data is available.

Download the full analysis
June Pecan Handler Receipts Graph

Receipts down 6% in June

Handler reported receipts in June lagged prior year levels by 6%, though the difference amounted to less than half a million lbs., a figure of little consequence given June averages just 2% of the annual harvest. With just two months of data left in the marketing year, receipts suggest 2025/26 will finish as a slightly above-average harvest, up 6% from last year.


Shelled stocks fall as handler and USDA data diverge

Despite handlers reporting a drawdown in shelled inventories, USDA Cold Storage reported shelled inventory actually climbing 1.6 million lbs. compared to May, with USDA data instead showing further declines in in-shell inventory. Total USDA and APC inventory figures diverged by just 0.5 million lbs. on an in-shell basis.


Pecan Handler Inventories Breakdown Graph June
Pecan Domestic Utilization Graph June 26

Domestic utilization surges as retail sales continue to lag

Implied domestic utilization surged 74% year-over-year, based largely on the handler reported inventory figure. Domestic shipments reported by handlers declined 3% year-over-year (-0.6 million lbs.), though that marked a 12% uptick from the month prior. Based on point-of-sale data from Circana, retail sales volume is lagging 2025 levels by 5.7% in May, June and July. 

See our Graph of the Month page for more insights.

Imports outpace exports for first time since January

For the first time since January, U.S. pecan imports outpaced exports even as shipments from Mexico remain at historically low levels. Total U.S. imports increased 10% year-over-year, though the increase was less than 1 million lbs. on an in-shell basis. Total U.S. exports declined 20% (-1.9 million lbs.) as in-shell sales to Europe fell. Shelled exports increased 15% as sales to Israel, Korea and others rose.

US Census Reported Pecan Imports June 26 Graph

Get the full picture

This overview highlights the month's key findings. Download the complete U.S. Pecan Market Analysis for the full data breakdown, graph by graph, section by section.

Download the full analysis