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Below reflects the most recent U.S. Pecan Market Analysis findings and is updated with every new release. The findings below are summarized from the executive summary within the analysis, also found in our ongoing video overview series. Download the analysis, watch the video, and visit this page monthly to stay up-to-date on the latest market trends.
Handler reported receipts in July came in 14% above prior year levels, though the increase amounted to just 612,000 lbs., a modest figure given July is typically the lowest-volume month of the year. With just one month of data left in the marketing year, receipts suggest 2025/26 will finish 6.4% above last year and 4.5% above the five-year average, the second-strongest year for receipts since 2020/21.
USDA Cold Storage and APC's Handler Survey are reporting similar overall inventory trends, with in-shell inventories declining seasonally, though not as sharply as in some years, down 12.6 million lbs. according to USDA and 15.7 million lbs. according to APC. The two sources diverge more on shelled pecans specifically: USDA data shows shelled inventories still running 1.5% above last year, while APC's handler survey shows a much tighter position, down 11.6% year-over-year.
After a surge in deliveries in June, implied domestic utilization returned to earth in July, falling 32% year-over-year. Barring a sudden uptick in deliveries, total domestic utilization is on pace to finish the season at its lowest level since 2019/20. With outstanding commitments trailing prior-year levels by 15% on an in-shell basis, a rapid improvement in August orders appears unlikely.
The new crop from South Africa has begun to show up in the global market data, with pricing stepping higher, averaging $2.35/lb. in-shell in June and $2.31/lb. in July. As anticipated, the vast majority of South African in-shell exports are heading to China, with shipments up 59% in June and July combined, a gain of 16.4 million lbs., reflecting a robust start to the season for the Southern Hemisphere's primary pecan exporter.
