Graph of the Month

What’s driving it

The pricing doesn't add up to pecans

The nuts being exported to Korea are selling at just $1.09/lb., generally too low to be pecans, even in-shell, and Korea's own import data reports a much smaller volume from China, just 247,000 lbs., than what China reports exporting. Other destinations, largely nut trading hubs, show average values above $10/lb., well above U.S., Mexican, or South African pecan prices, suggesting those higher-value flows more likely reflect the cost of shipping South African in-shell pecans to be shelled in China and re-exported, rather than a new wave of Chinese-grown pecan exports.

What it means for the industry

China's near-term impact is more likely tied to imports than exports

China's domestic pecan industry continues to evolve, with expectations of record production and potentially greater exports, but the current trade data doesn't support anecdotal reports of Chinese pecans broadly competing in the global market. China's export volumes remain far smaller than its imports, and any near-term market impact is more likely to come from a reduction in China's own import needs than from China's emergence as a major pecan exporter. Still, with surging purchases of South African pecans and the recent conclusion of China's antidumping investigation, it's a market worth continued monitoring.

Each month, the U.S. Pecan Market Analysis, an independent analysis prepared by an outside agricultural economist for the American Pecan Council, features a Graph of the Month: a closer look at one chart and the market dynamic behind it.

What's the impact of China's pecan exports?

What happened

China's "other nuts" exports are overwhelmingly destined for South Korea

What’s driving it

The pricing doesn't add up to pecans

What it means for the industry

China's near-term impact is more likely tied to imports than exports

View the full analysis