Graph of the month

May's installment digs into point-of-sale retail data from Circana to examine what rising pecan prices at retail may reveal about how consumers respond to those prices.

Pecans are about $1 per pound more expensive than a year ago

Digging into point-of-sale retail data from Circana through June 22, U.S. pecans are about $1/lb. more expensive on average than a year ago, suggesting retailers are passing on higher wholesale prices to consumers. For snacking pecans, the price increase equates to an 8% gain year-over-year, while for pecans in the cooking/baking section, most of which are private label, the increase is slightly higher at 12% year-over-year.

Shoppers are buying more units, but smaller ones

Complicating a simple price explanation is the reality that the average package size is modestly decreasing. Consumers are actually buying more units of pecans so far in calendar year 2026, up 0.4% year-to-date, but those units are 1% smaller on average, resulting in a net decline in volume. Importantly, that does not necessarily mean that individual SKUs are shrinking, but rather that consumers are simply opting for smaller pack sizes on average.

A price sensitivity question worth further investigation

While further investigation is warranted, this data point could help explain the slowdown in domestic sales. Perhaps consumers really are price sensitive outside of the end-of-year holidays, when pecans are an irreplaceable staple in many households. Recognizing that the average package size has decreased, the slowdown in domestic retail sales could simply mean that consumers are buying less in bulk and more personal-sized or specialty options, though more investigation is certainly warranted.