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Each month, the U.S. Pecan Market Analysis, an independent analysis prepared by an outside agricultural economist for the American Pecan Council, features a Graph of the Month: a closer look at one chart and the market dynamic behind it.
August's installment examines South Africa's continued growth as a major pecan exporter, and how concentrated its exports remain in China.
South Africa continues to establish itself as a major pecan exporter, with this latest harvest no exception. Season-to-date exports have increased by 27% on an in-shell basis through August. While exports from the primary grower in the Southern Hemisphere were smaller than Mexico's over the last 12 months, South Africa is likely to surpass Mexico this upcoming season and become the largest pecan exporter in the world by the end of the calendar year.
In contrast to the U.S. or Mexico, South Africa's exports are highly seasonal and geographically focused. 96% of South Africa's pecans are exported between June and November, with two-thirds exported in just July, August and September. During these peak months, nearly all of the volume is destined for China, and in June, July and August of this year, 98% of South Africa's exports were sold to China. Sales to other markets, like the European Union, Vietnam or the Middle East, typically come at the tail end of the season, often reflecting how much is left over after Chinese demand is satisfied. Based on the latest export data, all signs point to strong demand from China for South African pecans, particularly in light of the antidumping case into U.S. and Mexican pecans.
Unless China's purchasing slows down dramatically or the harvest proves higher than forecasted, there are unlikely to be many South African pecans available for other origins this year. Still, given the outlook for production, South Africa is likely to start competing in more diverse geographies in the coming years. Of particular note, even as South Africa's shelled pecans remain small (just 1.9 million lbs. over the last 12 months), they have been growing steadily.
This is one chart from this month's U.S. Pecan Market Analysis. Download the complete report for the full data breakdown.